Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
