Each time the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.
That is when enormous inflatables are sent across the border, with boxes of contraband goods swinging beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into shutdown 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the officials are certain they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.
They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.
Government Action
The Lithuanian administration has declared an official alert.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers before, their numbers increased dramatically this October.
"Of course it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses criminal networks to influence neighbouring countries," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If you want to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.
Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern flank.
"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."
Border Vigilance
Now, every night, security forces head out in the frontier area.
The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.
Patrols set up mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons travel too high to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.
Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any company that can devise how to intercept them.
Currently, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.
Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.
Strategic Motives
The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.
This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.
Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".
He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to past precedent.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a manufactured emergency.
"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."
The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.
"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.
Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.
"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.
"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.
"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.
"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."
