Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The average count of everyday murders per month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government data. But, public safety experts have advised that homicide data could fail to indicate improved countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.