This diplomatic language and optics from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India hinted at a strong two-way partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the leaders took a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic gesture. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the India-Russia bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth trip to India over his 25-year rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter took the premiership in 2014.
A Chasm Separating Symbolism and Substance
Yet, a noticeable gap persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing less Russian oil because of international pressure. The two nations concluded numerous memorandums of understanding in areas like mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, anticipated revelations on significant military deals failed to materialize. India has abstained from any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Influence
This all indicates that the India-Russia relationship no longer carries the same strategic heft it once did. In the Cold War, India maintained preferential trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique alliance peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a appearance of this close bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the former significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the West.
Broadening and Underlying Tensions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its important links with Moscow. Yet, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to diversify the relationship into other sectors. During Putin's visit, they announced an joint economic programme lasting until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This involves enhancing market access for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two covers multiple key strategic fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Dependability
At an ideological level, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, particularly among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing tensions between India and the US, where American leaders have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a more dependable ally.
This challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's visit contained no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the war have been minimal.
Navigating the Circle: India's Global Balancing Act
This dynamic highlights the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The nation is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, following a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing talks will succeed, resulting in a end of hostilities and the elimination of a major irritant in its relations with the West. However, even if a peace deal is reached, if it falls short of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the India-Russia alliance will certainly persist in Western governments.
