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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.